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Carlos And The Cubs
Written by wrigleyville   
Thursday, 28 December 2006
As noted earlier, Carlos Zambrano's value went through the roof today with Barry Zito's signing. The reaction among Cubs fans has ranged from hopeful panic to sheer terror to resignation that Carlos is leaving Chicago.

These are the four of options facing the Cubs:

1. Sign him now. Offer him whatever it takes to get him locked up before the season starts - because chances are it will be much cheaper than when he presumably becomes a free agent after the season.

Pros: Peace of mind and Carlos is locked up for the foreseeable future - at what eventually could become a bargain price.

Cons: It will be pricey, at least what Zito got, in terms of dollars per year - but probably an extra 10 percent more. Plus, it's always risky to sign pitchers to longterm, big money deals (See Hampton, Mike).

Likelihood: 67 percent they will make a real effort. 31 percent they will succeed.

2. Trade him before the season starts, because teams will give up significantly more now than later because they will have his services all year and will have a chance to sign him throughout the year. Note: We at Wrigleyville do not speculate on who they could trade for or with, at least not until it's out there in the media.

Pros: The Cubs would get a good number of Major League-ready players and/or topline prospects, players who could help out this year and in the future.

Cons: The Cubs lose their ace, and an already shaky rotation is now in shambles. The pitchfork brigade would make last year's fan rebellion look downright friendly.

Likelihood: 2 percent. Jim Hendry is in his contract year, and the stated goal is to win the World Series. This year. You don't do that by trading away one of the three best pitchers in the league, unless you get one of the two best pitchers in return or one of the five best pitchers and a center fielder or ... well, you get it.

3. Trade him at the deadline, no matter where the Cubs are in the standings, to ensure they receive something for him. The argument is this would give Rich Hill, Mark Prior and Wade Miller a chance to establish themselves a solid core of the rotation, in addition to Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis.

Pros: The Cubs still get value and could plug holes needed in a penant push.

Cons: The Cubs lose their ace, hopefully in the midst of a penant push. The natives would be extremely restless. There is nothing to indicate yet that the rotation is solid after Zambrano.

Likelihood: 1 percent, if they're in the hunt. 97 percent, if they're out of the race.

4. Play out the season and try to sign him a la Aramis Ramirez, even though it has been said Carlos would be the subject of the biggest bidding war for a pitcher in baseball history.

Pros: None, other than you get Carlos Zambrano playing his butt off in a contract-year situation.

Cons: Obviously, the Cubs either lose Zambrano or have to pay an incredibly high price to keep him, unless he lays an egg or gets hurt this season. Then, he joins the Prior-Wood-Miller brigade.

Likelihood: 33 percent, up until Opening Day. 89 percent after Opening Day.

Option 1 is my stated preference and seems like the best of some very difficult choices, though I understand the sentiments behind Options 2 and 3. They just simply don't seem realistic when the goal is to win the World Series this year - and getting to playoffs is a very real possibility in a presumably weaker National League Central.

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