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Carlos: To Sign Or Not
Written by wrigleyville   
Sunday, 21 January 2007
Buster Olney on Carlos Zambrano (subscription required): The Cubs might prefer to get Zambrano signed for $100 million before he's eligible for free agency next fall -- and if he's happy in Chicago, he should take that offer. But think, again, about what Zambrano might get: The Boston Red Sox were willing to commit $103 million in this offseason in order to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka, a player similar in talent and age to Zambrano (who is 25 years old). But while Matsuzaka had zero leverage, Zambrano will have enormous leverage. The Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, baseball's financial superpowers, would almost certainly be involved in any bidding for Zambrano, which would escalate the price dramatically. And while Matsuzaka comes to the big leagues amid some question about how he'll adjust and pitch in the Major Leagues, there are no such questions about Zambrano; he's gotten it done in the big leagues, at an All-Star-caliber level, already. If the Cubs were to get him signed to merely a Zito-type deal of $126 million, that would almost be a bargain, given the current market. The Mets, in particular, would have reason to go all out for Zambrano next fall, given their needs, given the physical decline of Pedro Martinez, and given that general manager Omar Minaya really values power pitching. It's extraordinarily rare when a power pitcher of Zambrano's ability hits the open market at the age of 26, before he theoretically hits the prime of his career (Which is why the Red Sox were so aggressive with Matsuzaka). Buster should enter the Wrigleyville23 Carlos Contract Contest.

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