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Brewers Fans Banking On Suppan, Bush & Co.
Written by wrigleyville   
Wednesday, 04 February 2009
Thumbnail image for jeff-suppan-t1.jpg
For a certain segment of the Milwaukee Brewers fan base (stretching all the way from Racine to West Allis to Sheboygan), there are three things that make them happy (in order):

1. Beer.
2. Cubs losses.
3. Brewers wins.

After No. 1, 2009 may be shaping up to be a slightly more difficult year for Brewers fans than last year, given the starting rotation of Yovani Gallardo (good), Manny Parra (not bad), Jeff Suppan (worse than Jason Marquis), Dave Bush (feh) and Seth McClung (or someone else).

But the plucky Brewers fans are trying to talk themselves into the hope-y, change-y spirit that pervades us all in these days of tax-free Cabinet secretaries. This is best illustrated in the comments section of this amusing post on the idiocy of Steve Rosenbloom:

I don't think the Brewers are stacked in the starting pitching department, but doesn't Gallardo essentially replace Sheets from last year?

He does in my mind, so really the net loss to the rotation is just CC, and though that guy was freaking great I'd say about 28 teams in baseball (including the Cubs) could not have afforded him in FA this year.

What were we supposed to do? Brewer starters had a collective ERA of 3.86 last year which was #2 in the NL. Only 5 teams in the NL had a starter ERA under 4. There's some talent there.  

Brewer starters threw 983.1 innings last year, which was the most in the NL. That's with CC added in July, Sheets on the shelf at the end of the year, and Gallardo out most of the year too.

Of those 983.1 innings, CC only threw 130.2 of them (13%). If you remove CC's 130.2 IP & 24 ER last year (Jesus!), Brewer starters still had an ERA of 4.20. That would still be in the top half of the NL last year, and it would be almost equal to STL (4.19) who was #7 in the NL.

Returning 87% of what was ARGUABLY the best starting rotation in the NL last year (#1IP/#2ERA) is still most likely a staff in the top third/half of the NL. It's not like they are going to be throwing underhand.

It is useful to be hopeful, but let's just say this: The Brewers were 16 games over .500 in games started by pitchers named CC Sabathia or Ben Sheets in 2008. The Brewers were two games over .500 started by pitchers not named CC Sabathia or Ben Sheets.

Does that sound about right for 2009?

The upcoming rotation, by the way, had ERAs in 2008 of 4.18 (Bush, in 185 innings), 4.96 (Suppan, in 177 innings), 4.39 (Parra, in 166 innings), 4.02 (McClung, in 105 innings) and 1.88 (Gallardo, in 24 innings). Sheets was 3.09 (198 innings) and Sabathia was 1.65 (130 innings).

So, yes, "87 percent of what was ARGUABLY the best starting rotation in the NL last year" may be returning, but that 13 percent was significantly more valuable than the rest of the rotation combined.


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