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Less Productive Leadoff Hitters Are Better?
Written by wrigleyville   
Thursday, 16 July 2009

Someone named Kent Sterling in a place called Indianapolis at a radio station called "The Fan" has ideas about making the Cubs better, and they involve Jake Fox catching and then moving to left field, Alfonso Soriano playing second base, and some other things.

His thoughts include:

The really good teams of the past for the Cubs ('84, '89, '03), had prototypical leadoff men (Dernier, Walton, Lofton).  The current Cubs do not have one of these.  Hendry needs to go get one.  [No, I don't count the '07 and '08 teams as really good - you don't play like that in the postseason while healthy and call yourself good, even if you win 97 games.]
So what does Kent Sterling of Indianapolis mean by "prototypical leadoff man"? He doesn't say, but he presumably means someone who gets on base a lot in front of the bigger bats, steals some bases and scores runs.
 
If so, Kenny Lofton is the only player of the three who had an arguably better year as a leadoff hitter (in '03) than Alfonso Soriano had in 2008 - and he only played 56 games for the Cubs that year. Let's compare how each did as a leadoff hitter (in the "really good" years of '84, '89, '03 and the "not really good" year of '08):
 
Dernier (1984): .276/.355/.361, 45 SB, 16 CS, 93 runs in 136 games (.68 runs per game)
Walton (1989): .293/.334/.385, 24 SB, 7 CS, 64 runs in 115 games (.56 runs per game)
Lofton (2003): .327/.381/.471, 12 SB, 4 CS, 39 runs in 56 games (.70 runs per game)
Soriano (2008): .287/.350/.544, 19 SB, 3 CS, 76 runs in 105 games (.72 runs per game)
This is not to argue the 2009 Cubs have a passable leadoff hitter, based on production to date. They don't.
 
But, to recap Sterling's argument, years in which the Cubs win one or two playoff games, they are "really good." years in which the Cubs win zero playoff games - even if they win 97 games during the year - they are not "really good."
 
And the difference maker is, according to Kent Sterling of Indianapolis, a "prototypical leadoff hitter" who does not produce as much as the non-prototypical leadoff hitter.
 
Got all that?


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