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To Trade Or Not To Trade? Phil Knows (Sorta)
Written by wrigleyville   
Monday, 20 July 2009
We need to get Phil Rogers a context machine - a contextualizer, if you will. His latest effort essentially says midseason trades are rarely worth it for contenders (except when they are) and uses the Rich Harden trade as an example:

Rich Harden was a celebrated acquisition. He turned in some of the best work of his career after joining the Cubs a little more than a year ago.

Yet you would imagine the Cubs would have made the playoffs without that deal -- they were 56-37 and 4 1/2 games ahead when he made his first start in blue -- and Harden eventually played his role in the Dodgers sweeping them.

His impact in 2009 has been minimal. The Cubs are 8-7 in his starts, and the veteran forced out of their plans, Jason Marquis, is having an All-Star season for the Rockies. ...

In the talk-radio, Internet era of media coverage, all but the best teams face public pressure to make July trades to fill holes exposed during April, May and June. It's an exciting proposition, although more often than not a search for pie in the sky.

So, acquiring Rich Harden was bad? How can we judge that without knowing what the Cubs sent to Oakland? Let's take a look:

Sean Gallagher. The centerpiece of the deal, Gallagher didn't make the A's rotation out of spring training this year, eventually made six relief appearances and two starts, and posted an 8.16 ERA before being the player to be named later in a trade to San Diego for Scott Hairston.

Matt Murton. The man-crush of many Cubs fans has been, well, Matt Murton. He went 3-for-30 for the A's before being traded to Colorado in the offseason for a minor league infielder. For Colorado, he continues to thrive at Triple A while batting just .267 with the Rockies.

Eric Patterson. He's playing well in Triple A for the A's.

Josh Donaldson. Having a nice season in Midland (Double A).

So, at worst, they gave up two decent prospects for three sterling months (and an erratic at best 2009) of Rich Harden. I'd make that deal again in a heartbeat (not that they let me).

And let's look at Phil's conclusion:

The Harden deal was one of 20 contenders made last July and August. A few of them, such as the ones that sent CC Sabathia to the BrewersManny Ramirez and Casey Blake to the Dodgers and Joe Blanton to the Phillies, paid off. Most, however, did not.

History long has said midseason deals favor the sellers, not the buyers. Only about one of three midseason trades achieved a short-term objective last season.

Phil, of course, doesn't show his work, so we have no way of knowing whether this is true without much work on the Internet machine. But history also tells us that Rick Sutcliffe, Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton were pretty good midseason acquisitions for the Cubs (to pick a team randomly).

And the inclusion of Sabathia and Manny in the above list would seem to rather disprove Phil's whole point, since - with Harden - they were the two of the three biggest acquisitions in 2008 and all three teams went on to the playoffs.


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