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A Brewers Fan Does Some Math
Written by wrigleyville   
Friday, 06 March 2009
wrignorth.jpg
Every once in a while, a commenter leaves a comment that is so worthy of comment that we can't just let it reside in the comments. It must be commented upon in its own post, for you all to add your further comments.

A comment left today by a Brewers fan is one such comment. It was left at this post, in which we expressed bemusement that the Brewers were giving away "Miller Park South" t-shirts for 100 Brewers fans who buy tickets to the September 17 Brewers-Cubs game at Wrigley.

With that, we move on to the comment, from Danny Noonan (with answers from the proprietor, as we believe it polite to engage our readers):

DN: I agree that it's a silly promotion, but I would bet that a larger percentage of Brewer fans travel to games at Wrigley than Cubs fans travel to Miller Park.

WV: Um, OK. What leads you to believe that?

DN: One of the most annoying thing about Cubs fans is the pure ignorance of (or blatant disregard for) the realities of market size.

WV: Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter. Please go on.

DN: People pick their team because of where they are from, or who their dads cheered for.

WV: Right, I'm with you so far. I'm from Indianapolis, where we pick from the Cubs, Reds or Cardinals. My dad cheered for the Yankees.

DN: If that wasn't the case, who would be a fan of the team that hasn't won the world series in 100 years?

WV: Because WGN hooked a generation of fans by airing every single Cubs game for years and years and beamed them into millions of people's homes using giant pulleys, ball bearings and lasers.

DN: There's something like 2.8 Million people in the city of Chicago and almost 10 Million in the metro area. 

WV: I could check the Census Bureau on this, but I'll take your word for it.

DN: Milwaukee is about 600,000 in the city and less than 2 Million in the metro area. 

WV: OK. Why are you capitalizing "million"? It's distracting me.

DN: So if Cubs fans take 50% of the seats at Miller Park for a Cubs Brewers game (this hasn't happened in like 3 or 4 years. It's more like 30% these days), ...

WV: That's simply not true. Even Brewers broadcasters were congratulating their fans in the pivotal late July series last year for making up (maybe) half of the crowd at Miller Park. Why would they do so if it hadn't happened in three or four years?

DN: ... that means that .8% of Chicago came up for the game. 

WV: This comment is taking an interesting turn.

DN: If you consider half of the city to be White Sox fans, we can call this 1.6%.

WV: I don't, but I kind of see where you're going here.

DN: If my math is right, that would be like 9,600 Brewer fans traveling down to Wrigley for a game. Which they do. Easily.

WV: That's not true. Brewers fans have not once made up roughly a quarter of the crowd at Wrigley. Stop.

DN: On a side note, last year, Wrigley sold 3.3 Million or so tickets. Miller Park sold 3,068,000. 

WV: Lots of those were bought by Cubs fans.

DN: That means that on average, every Milwaukeean went to more than 5 games (or every metro Milwaukeean went to 1 ½ games).

WV: Is it Milwaukeean? Milwaukeeite? Milwaukeeer? And how did they go to half a game? Tickets explicitly say they cannot be used for reentry. Is that how they got to 3 million-plus - by double counting those metro-area attendees?

DN: If you divide the city in half (which is conservative because the White Sox to NOT have half of the Chicago fan base), every "Cubs fan" went to 2.35 games (or .66 games).

WV: Why do you say "Cubs fan" in scare quotes? Your grammar tricks are confusing me and distracting from the magic flowing from your abacus.

DN: I'd like to say that based on this, we're better fans than you, ...

WV: Me? I didn't go to one game at Wrigley last year. But I did go to two in Philly. Which, by the way leads to this interesting tidbit: The Cubs were second in baseball in road attendance in 2008, behind Boston and yet ahead of both New York teams and both Los Angeles teams. The White Sox were 23rd and the Angels were 29th. What does this do to your market size argument?

DN: ... but obviously, you're limited by stadium size, and as of right now, we're not as much. 

WV: Right. Because all of the Cubs games are sellouts. Because the city is so big. Which also explains why all White Sox games are sold out.

DN: So here's the question: 

WV: I like the interactive parts!

DN: If Wrigley Field had 150,000 seats or so, would you sell it out every game? I bet you wouldn't.

WV: I'm pretty sure that's a straw man argument. Or a red herring. Or a straw herring. Either way, the Cubs have a waiting list of 100,000 fans for season tickets.



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