It seems Ryan Theriot and the Cubs are headed for arbitration, leaving the questions: Who will win and is it worth it to the Cubs to save $800,000?

Another Cubs Blog noted that Corey Hart won his hearing with the Milwaukee Brewers, using that outcome to suggest that the Cubs would lose to Theriot:

The Brewers offered about $1 million more than Corey Hart is projected to be worth in 2010 and they lost.  I don't know why they lost, but I'm sure some of it has to do with the fact that Hart has been an everyday player for 3 years and had an excellent 2007 season.  Ryan Theriot has never had an excellent season, but he's been an everyday player for 3 years now at a more important defensive position.

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The Cubs are not winning an arbitration hearing with Ryan Theriot if it goes that far and to be honest, I see no reason for Theriot to accept anything less than the $3.4 million figure he turned in.  Assuming Theriot would like to get this over as much as the Cubs, he's probably willing to accept $3.2 million and the Cubs would save a couple hundred thousand that way.  They need to get Theriot signed.  There is no reason whatsoever that this should go to a hearing.  It's not good for the team and the team has no chance of winning.  We're talking about a few hundred thousand dollars here.  For a team with a payroll near $140 million.

We, of course, don't agree: The difference in asking price and the Cubs' offer is $800,000 (with Theriot requesting $3.4 million), which is decent money to save on a player who probably won't be in the team's long term plans with strong middle infielders in the farm system (and the ease of replacing a career 86 OPS+ player).

But will the Cubs win? Maybe, maybe not.

Corey Hart isn't the only case study in an apparently fickle process. For example, let's take a look at one B.J. Upton and the Tampa Bay Rays:

Upton requested $3.3 million; the Rays offered $3 million. The Rays won.

How does Upton compare to Theriot?

Everyday Player: Upton, 3 years; Theriot 3 years

Batting Line: Upton, .266/.352/.410, with 49 HRs, 123 SB (42 CS) and 101 OPS+; Theriot .288/.356/.369, with 14 HRs, 84 SB (29 CS) and 86 OPS+

2010 WAR (CHONE): Upton 3.8; Theriot 2.2

This is not to say that the Cubs will win their hearing with Theriot; it is just to say that it isn't a done deal that they will lose because of the outcome of other hearings.

And, with Theriot likely being expendable for the Cubs, it is worth trying to save $800,000. We're not talking Tim Lincecum here.