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Now Carlos Zambrano Isn't A "Bulldog"
Written by wrigleyville   
Thursday, 18 February 2010
Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show held in New York City

With Milton Bradley gone, Carlos Zambrano is squarely in the crosshairs of the Chicago media.

In a barely comprehensible column, Dan McNeil compares Zambrano unfavorably to Ted Lilly (based largely on 2009) while trotting out all of the old familiar tropes against Z:

It's a good thing Zambrano found a gym and learned to push himself away from the table this winter, but Lilly has been the only bulldog on the Cubs' staff in each of the last three seasons. Even if Zambrano fit comfortably in 34-waist pants, I wouldn't trust him. The Cubs didn't in 2006 when they settled on a one-year deal to avoid arbitration with him before they caved and signed him to a long-term $91.5 million deal in August of 2007.

In the last three seasons, Lilly has won 44 games to Zambrano's 41, while both posted 26 losses. You can trust Lilly to pass on craving oohs and aahs from on-lookers with tape measure home runs in batting practice at Coors Field when he's nursing a bad back. He's compliant when he needs treatment.

You trust Lilly to throw strikes. The lefty walked only 36 in 177 innings last year while Zambrano walked 78 and plunked nine others — in fewer innings. While Zambrano was crawling to his nine victories last year — at almost $2 million per victory — opposing hitters batted .230 against Lilly.

(click "read more" for full article)

Interesting, though opposing hitters batted .232 against Lilly last year. Anyway, let's look at how Zambrano and Lilly compare over the last three seasons - or since Lilly joined the Cubs.

Record: Zambrano 41-26; Lilly 44-26

ERA: Zambrano 3.89; Lilly 3.70

IP: Zambrano 574; Lilly 588

Strikeouts: Zambrano 459; Lilly 509

Walks: Zambrano 251; Lilly 155

HRs: Zambrano 51; Lilly 82

ERA+: Zambrano 118, Lilly 124

So, according to Dan McNeil, bulldoggedness lies somewhere between 41 and 44 wins, 3.89 and 3.70 ERA, 574 and 588 innings pitched, 459 and 509 strikeouts, 251 and 155 walks, and a 118 and 124 ERA+.

Using that logic, if Zambrano wins 14.67 games, has an ERA of 3.70, pitches 196 innings, strikes out 170 batters, walks just 51 and has an ERA of 124, he'll be the bulldog on staff this year. If not, the Cubs may be bulldogless, given that Lilly isn't coming back any time soon.

All of this makes you wonder: What do those numbers have to be for Z to be an ace?



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